Research and Report Consultancy

Time Horizon Bias in Policy Research

Time Horizon Bias in Policy Research

Why Timing Determines Policy Truth Policy effects unfold over time. Yet many evaluations assume impact appears instantly. This mismatch creates time horizon bias. When researchers measure outcomes before policies mature, they report null or negative effects. When they measure too late, effects blend with unrelated shocks. Reviewers then conclude: you measured the wrong effect at … Read more

Why Baselines Are the Foundation of Impact Evaluation

Why Baselines Are the Foundation of Impact Evaluation

Impact evaluations are often described as the gold standard of evidence-based decision-making. Governments, donors, and organizations rely on them to understand what works, what fails, and why. These evaluations inform billion-dollar policies and shape interventions that affect millions of lives. Yet, one of the most common—and costly—mistakes is attempting to measure impact without establishing a … Read more